Reorder Reminders That Land The Week They Run Out.

TL;DR: Order value and pack size tell you when a customer runs out. Arriving that week, helpfully, is the highest-conversion timing in email.

From the audit vault: From audits of consumable brands from condiments to trade supplies: reorder timing was guessable from the order itself, and nobody was doing the arithmetic.

Do the arithmetic

Two packs at typical usage is roughly six weeks; a large kit, three months. Order quantity and value give a run-out estimate for every customer without asking a single question. Refine per customer with each subsequent order gap.

Arrive as a service

The email that lands the week supplies run low reads as thoughtfulness, almost as if the brand is keeping an eye out for them: “about now you’ll be running low, here’s a one-click reorder.” The same email three weeks early is noise, three weeks late is a lost order to whoever was closer.

Bridge to subscription

Each well-timed reminder is also the natural subscription pitch: never think about this again. Replenishment flows and subscription upsells are one system with two exits.